Irmgarde Brown

The tradition of Groundhog Day goes all the way back to the 1880’s and is based on weather lore that came over to the U.S. with German Immigrants. It’s sort of a silly thing, where the outcome has a 50% chance of being right. Despite those odds, poor Phil has only had a 39% accuracy rate. 

Book publishing has its own set of odds that can be quite daunting. Here are just a few examples:

• The odds of getting a book “traditionally” published is about 1-2% 
• Of all the people who actually finish writing a book, only 20% of them are published, traditionally or otherwise.
• The average “traditionally” published book usually only sells about 500 copies its first year, and maybe 3000 copies over its lifetime. 
• There are nearly 50,000 writers and authors writing and working in the United States alone (Statista website)
• The average age of a “debut” author is 36. 
• And the list goes on and on and on. 

I have a new book coming out. Yay! But I confess, it feels a little bit like bringing Puxatawney Phil out of his cage to determine its chances of success. 

The advice for having book success is not an exact science. For instance, they say, “write the best book you can, that only you can write.” Or, “write the book that sets your soul on fire!” Or, “be sure it’s grammatically correct, the plot is robust, and it’s exceptionally written.” In whose opinion? Even the grammatically correct mandate is fraught with different opinions (should I remind you of the ongoing controversy over the “Oxford comma”?)

According to Natalie Harris-Spencer, “Getting a book deal comes down to three things: talent, perseverance, and timing. Editors are simply looking for books they love that they can sell and make money from.” And if an author wants to be “traditionally” published, then the first hurdle is actually getting an agent, who also wants to see a book they can sell and make money from before an editor gets a glimpse of it. 

So, why bother? 

I suppose, for the same reason we keep bringing out that ridiculous groundhog, writers put their books out there. Maybe this time….

I write stories and although I am not traditionally published yet, I’m also not self-published; it’s a hybrid kind of thing. I’m not a debut author anymore either. Nor am I anywhere close to 36 years old. Sometimes I think about holding on to a title I’ve written and giving it the query treatment to attract an agent and subsequently an editor. But then, my characters clamor for the light of day. They need readers to fully exist. I give in. 

“Swan Out of Water” should hit shelves on June 1, 2025. Until then, let me introduce you to the characters with whom I’ve been living in my head. And let’s see what kind of shadow they will cast. Watch this space.